Is There A Threat To The Bay Area?
Yes. And we’re already seeing the effects.
You might have already noticed some of these effects and wondered whether the events are one-off outliers or signs of systemic change. Sadly, we know it is the latter. Collected data is clear about the fact that we can expect the following areas to be impacted by climate change, but the severity will depend on how quickly we change course [read more]:
– A rise in wildfire rate and severity
By 2060, large amounts of California’s forests are expected to be destroyed by wildfires burning through three times larger areas of the Sierra Nevada than before. [source]
– Extreme heat
By 2080, San Francisco area base temperatures will resemble Los Angeles county - 6.9°F (3.8°C) warmer and 40% drier than winter in the Bay. [map visualizing the US in 2080]
Evergreen forests of the Bay Area will die off and be replaced by grasslands. [source]
– Prolonged drought
The American Southwest and Central Plains are expected to dry out by the end of the century [read more], and by 2050 fruit and vegetable production will no longer be possible in parts of California [source] greatly affecting food availability and price.
A third less snow in the Sierras by 2050 will also spell a water crisis for San Francisco and the Peninsula. [source]
– Flooding
By 2040, with about a foot of sea-level rise parts of the Bay Area will be regularly flooded, such as San Francisco airport and San Jose airport (expected to be fully submerged 50 years later) [read more].
By 2060, much of San Rafael and Foster City will be underwater. [source]
By 2050, the Baylands, and most of Midtown and Palo Verde, will be severely flooded. [see interactive map]
The Bay Area is not isolated from the rest of the world, and it will continue to be influenced by the global heating effects (for instance, there is a direct link between the melting of Arctic ice and Californian draught [source]), food scarcity, and mass migrations.
To learn more, we recommend the CA Legislative Analyst’s Office series of reports that came out in Spring 2022.
Screenshot from University of Maryland’s interactive map of climate change effects on US cities by 2100.
Screenshot from SF Chronicle’s interactive map showing the expected effects of sea-level rise in Palo Alto in 2050.